Wednesday, December 16, 2020

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December 16, 2020 - MacKenzie Scott gives away $4.2bn in four months

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TradeBriefs Editorial

From the Editor's Desk

Develop a "Probabilistic" Approach to Managing Uncertainty

Our new world of sensors, smartphones, and connected devices means more data than ever - but does it also mean that it's getting easier to make well-informed decisions? Quite the contrary, in fact. What's more important than how much data you have is how it frames the way you think. Too often, leaders under pressure to appear decisive attempt to deal with complex issues with simple rules or analogies, selectively using data to justify poor judgment calls. But what if rather than trying to be right, you could be less wrong over time?

When faced with uncertainty, how should leaders react? Should they make a big bet, hedge their position, or just wait and see? Investors and traders might be adept at managing risk and unforeseen events, but in other industries, leaders can be blindsided by the unknown. We naturally tend to see situations in one of two ways: either events are certain and can therefore be managed by planning, processes, and reliable budgets; or they are uncertain, and we cannot manage them well at all. Fortunately, there is another approach.

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